Street Expectations: Revenue & EPS
Consensus estimates for Nvidia's Q3 revenue center around $54.8 billion, with a range stretching slightly higher to $55-$56 billion needed to meet or exceed market optimism. Earnings per share (EPS) estimates hover near $1.24 to $1.26, implying year-over-year growth of approximately 54% to 56%. Gross margins are forecasted to remain robust near 73-75%, reflecting strong pricing power despite competitive pressures.
| Metric | Estimate | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.8B-$56B | Driven by Data Center strength |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $1.24 - $1.26 | Reflects continued margin strength |
| Gross Margin | 73.0% - 75.0% | Slight compression possible |
This quarter's revenue growth is expected to be primarily fueled by Nvidia's Data Center segment, especially sales of the new Blackwell (B200) chip, which is anticipated to materially augment Data Center revenue by about $8 billion from prior quarters.
Analyst Revisions: Bullish Momentum
Recent weeks have seen predominantly upward revisions from major analysts, underscoring strong confidence in Nvidia's AI market positioning:
| Analyst / Firm | Estimate Change | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vivek Arya (BofA) | Raised FY26 EPS to $4.56 | Buy | $275 |
| Susquehanna | Raised price target to $230 | Positive | $230 |
| Joseph Moore (MS) | Raised target to $220 | Buy | $220 |
| Rothschild & Co | Raised target from $211 to $245 | Buy | $245 |
No significant downside revisions have emerged this week, reflecting strong analyst conviction in Nvidia's near- and medium-term growth powered by AI infrastructure demand.
Technical Analysis: Price & Volatility Outlook
Nvidia's stock price has demonstrated strong upward momentum fueled by AI enthusiasm. However, upcoming earnings create elevated volatility risk, with potential 6-8% swings expected based on results and guidance surprises.
A beat above $56 billion revenue and EPS >$1.26 may trigger accelerated price gains.
Guidance below $61.5 billion for Q4 FY26 revenue or cautious commentary on AI demand could prompt significant pullbacks.
Support levels remain near recent consolidation points, while resistance hinges on confirming AI spending longevity.
Nvidia Q3 FY25 Financial Preview Summary
| Financial Metric | Q3 FY25 Estimate | Q2 FY25 Actual | Q3 FY24 Actual | Y/Y Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $37.5B ± 2% (GAAP) | $30.0B | $18.1B | +94% |
| Operating Income | $21.9B (GAAP) | $18.6B | $10.4B | +110% |
| Net Income | $19.3B (GAAP) | $16.6B | $9.2B | +109% |
| Diluted EPS | $0.78 | $0.67 | $0.37 | +111% |
| Gross Margin | 73.0%-75.0% | 75.7% | 75.0% | Flat |
Note: Data here is illustrative based on recent guidance and prior quarters showing Nvidia’s growth trajectory and margin stability.
Market Outlook with AI Boom
Nvidia leads in AI chip manufacturing with solid demand from hyperscalers and enterprises building or expanding AI infrastructure. The new Blackwell chip is a key growth driver. Despite market enthusiasm, investors remain cautious about:
The duration and scale of the AI spending boom.
Geopolitical risks impacting government sector demand.
Emerging competition from AMD and in-house hyperscale accelerators.
Strong Q3 results plus confident Q4 guidance will validate Nvidia’s dominant position in fueling the AI market’s growth through 2026 and beyond. Weaknesses or guidance shortfalls could trigger significant stock price corrections despite the long-term AI growth thesis.
Visual: Nvidia Revenue & EPS Estimates vs. Analyst Targets
| Quarter | Consensus Revenue ($B) | Revenue Range ($B) | Consensus EPS | Analyst Target Prices |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY25 | 54.8 | 54.0 - 56.0 | 1.24 - 1.26 | $220 - $275 |
| Q4 FY25 (pred.) | ~61.5 (guidance) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
This integrated technical and fundamental overview highlights Nvidia's critical Q3 earnings as a litmus test for AI-driven growth sustainability. Market participants should watch for Nvidia’s reported revenue and EPS relative to high street targets, margin trends, and especially management's forward guidance on AI demand visibility.
This blend of technical price analysis and fundamental earnings/development insights provides a comprehensive perspective for investors navigating Nvidia’s stock around the earnings event.
Key Sources
- https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-third-quarter-fiscal-2025
- https://www.linkedin.com/advice/3/heres-how-you-can-blend-technical-analysis-other-8tvqc
- https://www.marketpulse.com/markets/nvidia-nvda-q3-2025-earnings-preview-navigating-the-ai-stress-test/
- https://daloopa.com/blog/analyst-best-practices/guide-to-fundamental-analysis-vs-technical-analysis
- https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-will-q3-earnings-report-matter/
- https://databox.com/how-to-analyze-data
- https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/17/huangs-half-a-trillion-nvidia-forecast-will-come-up-at-q3-earnings.html
- https://julianajackson.substack.com/p/how-to-do-data-analysis
- https://economictimes.com/news/international/us/nvidia-earnings-preview-nvda-stock-prepares-for-crucial-q3-fy2026-results-heres-how-nvidia-stock-may-react-post-earnings/articleshow/125388456.cms
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/07/technical-fundamental.asp
- https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/nvidia-earnings-live-updates-and-commentary-november-2025
- https://www.tipranks.com/news/morgan-stanley-hikes-nvidia-stock-nvda-price-target-ahead-of-q3-earnings
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20251113173/nvidias-stock-has-a-strong-setup-ahead-of-next-weeks-earnings-this-analyst-says
- https://www.aol.com/articles/analysts-love-nvidia-heading-wednesday-161045350.html
- https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-stock-earnings-key-ai-stock-trade/
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